Week of Apr 17 to Apr 24: Income Signal Scorecard
A down week. The 19 Consensus BUYs were the only group that finished positive.
Income funds dropped this week. The universe lost 0.70%. The 19 highest-conviction Consensus BUY signals gained 0.24%. They were the only group with positive returns.
The Numbers
Week of Apr 17 to Apr 24, 2026. Universe size: 366 funds. Consensus BUYs: 19 (where Timing, Academic, and Health checks all agree).
Signal performance breakdown (7-day price-only returns):
Consensus BUY: 19 funds, +0.24% (only group positive)
HOLD: 124 funds, -0.39%
AVOID: 186 funds, -0.88%
WATCH: 29 funds, -0.92%
SELL: 8 funds, -2.94% (worst, by design)
Universe average: 366 funds, -0.70%
The Consensus BUY signals beat the universe by +0.95 percentage points in a down market. Last week the BUYs captured more upside in a rally; this week they were the only group still standing in a drawdown. That symmetry is the capital preservation thesis in action.
The SELL bucket is the receipt at the other extreme. SELL signals dropped -2.94%, more than 4x the universe loss. Avoiding those funds is the most valuable thing a signal can do in a down market.
Signal stability remained high. 15 of 19 Consensus BUY signals held their rating through Friday (79% stability, narrower than usual because the consensus bar is set high). Across all 366 funds, 93% held their rating week over week.
Portfolio Health
Deterioration monitoring as of Apr 24:
207 funds CLEAR (healthy distributions, stable NAV)
146 funds MONITOR (elevated but not critical)
11 funds WATCHLIST (active deterioration concerns)
2 funds with insufficient data
WATCHLIST count rose from 9 to 11 this week. Two additional funds tripped enough deterioration flags to graduate from MONITOR. Worth tracking whether that becomes a trend.
What This Means for Income Investors
A down week is when the difference between income investing and yield chasing becomes visible. When the tide goes out, the funds with weak coverage, eroding NAV, and compressed leverage spreads give back gains first. SELL funds dropped 2.94%, the kind of move that compounds into permanent capital impairment if held through repeated drawdowns.
The Consensus BUYs are the system’s tightest filter. Only 19 of 366 funds clear all three checks (Timing, Academic, Health). The reward for that strictness is what just happened: a positive number in a week where the average fund lost money.
Bottom Line
The same alpha is generated whether the market rises or falls. Up weeks produce alpha by capturing more upside. Down weeks produce alpha by losing less, or in this case, by being one of the few groups still positive. Across enough weeks, this compounds into the kind of return that survives 2022.
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Methodology: Returns shown are 7-day price-only returns and do not include distributions paid during the window. Consensus BUYs require all three signal layers (Timing, Academic, Health) to agree on BUY. Distribution-adjusted total returns will be added in a future release.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice. Signals are generated by a systematic model and are presented for educational purposes only. Margin amplifies gains and losses.